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ABSTRACT The reliable detection of the global 21-cm signal, a key tracer of Cosmic Dawn and the Epoch of Reionization, requires meticulous data modelling and robust statistical frameworks for model validation and comparison. In Paper I of this series, we presented the beam-factor-based chromaticity correction (BFCC) model for spectrometer data processed using BFCC to suppress instrumentally induced spectral structure. We demonstrated that the BFCC model, with complexity calibrated by Bayes factor-based model comparison (BFBMC), enables unbiased recovery of a 21-cm signal consistent with the one reported by The Experiment to Detect the Global Epoch of Reionization Signature (EDGES) from simulated data. Here, we extend the evaluation of the BFCC model to lower amplitude 21-cm signal scenarios where deriving reliable conclusions about a model’s capacity to recover unbiased 21-cm signal estimates using BFBMC is more challenging. Using realistic simulations of chromaticity-corrected EDGES-low spectrometer data, we evaluate three signal amplitude regimes – null, moderate, and high. We then conduct a Bayesian comparison between the BFCC model and three alternative models previously applied to 21-cm signal estimation from EDGES data. To mitigate biases introduced by systematics in the 21-cm signal model fit, we incorporate the Bayesian Null-Test-Evidence-Ratio (BaNTER) validation framework and implement a Bayesian inference workflow based on posterior odds of the validated models. The BaNTER-validated posterior-odds-based methodology presented here is general and transferable to other global 21-cm experiments employing Bayesian signal inference. We demonstrate that, unlike BFBMC alone, this approach consistently recovers 21-cm signal estimates that align with the true signal across all amplitude regimes, advancing robust global 21-cm signal detection methodologies. 

Abstract IC 10 X-1 is an eclipsing high-mass X-ray binary containing a stellar-mass black hole (BH) and a Wolf–Rayet (WR) donor star with an orbital period ofP= 34.9 hr. This binary belongs to a group of systems that can be the progenitors of gravitational-wave sources; hence understanding the dynamics of systems such as IC 10 X-1 is of paramount importance. The prominent Heii4686 emission line (previously used in mass estimates of the BH) is out of phase with the X-ray eclipse, suggesting that this line originates somewhere in the ionized wind of the WR star or in the accretion disk. We obtained 52 spectra from the GEMINI/GMOS archive, observed between 2001 and 2019. We analyzed the spectra both individually, and after binning them by orbital phase to improve the signal-to-noise ratio. The radial-velocity curve from the stacked data is similar to historical results, indicating the overall parameters of the binary have remained constant. However, the Heiiline profile shows a correlation with the X-ray hardness-ratio values; also, we report a pronounced skewness of the line profile, and the skewness varies with orbital phase. These results support a paradigm wherein the Heiiline tracks structures in the stellar wind that are produced by interactions with the BH’s ionizing radiation and the accretion flow. We compare the observable signatures of two alternative hypotheses proposed in the literature: wind irradiation plus shadowing, and accretion disk hotspot; and we explore how the line-profile variations fit into each of these models.